Rating
Papua New Guinea risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 55.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated3m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-18 19:40:34 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-18 21:40:34 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity100.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI27.7/100
CFI activity proxy63.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 39/100 · Eligible records: 50
Rating history
- AtoCindex 12 → 51Green → Yellow17h agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 12 → 51)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 10.0
Country rating changed from A to C (score 12 → 51). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributed. severity component 5.4 → 100.0. population component 0.0 → 10.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — PG Detected: 2026-10-17T15:26:00.000Z CalamityScore: 55/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 11,676 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoAindex 53 → 12Yellow → Green18h agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 53 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 5.4population component 18.5 → 0.0
- CtoCindex 48 → 533d agoActivity score changed from 48 to 53Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 6.2 → 18.5forecast component 45.0 → 63.0
- BtoCindex 35 → 484d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 48)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.6 → 100.0population component 0.3 → 6.2
- CtoBindex 48 → 354d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 48 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 71.6population component 7.8 → 0.3
- AtoCindex 15 → 484d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 15 → 48)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.6 → 100.0population component 0.3 → 7.8
- CtoAindex 48 → 154d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 48 → 15)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 20.6population component 5.5 → 0.3forecast component 43.5 → 45.0
- AtoCindex 4 → 48Green → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 4 → 48)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 5.5forecast component 18.0 → 43.5
- CtoAindex 47 → 4Yellow → Green5d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 47 → 4)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 3.6population component 7.0 → 0.0forecast component 40.5 → 18.0
- DtoCindex 76 → 47Orange → Yellow5d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 76 → 47)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 11.7 → 7.0forecast component 57.8 → 40.5
- DtoDindex 77 → 76Red → Orange14d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 60); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 15.2 → 11.7forecast component 60.8 → 57.8
- DtoDindex 74 → 77Orange → Red18d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed7 new cascade alert(s)population component 1.7 → 15.2
- DtoDindex 76 → 74Red → Orange18d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedpopulation component 11.7 → 1.7forecast component 59.3 → 60.8
- DtoDindex 72 → 76Orange → Red29d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed6 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 1.7 → 11.7
- DtoDindex 66 → 7231d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 72Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.0 → 1.7forecast component 54.0 → 59.3
- DtoDindex 74 → 6631d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 66Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 1.5 → 0.0forecast component 56.3 → 54.0
- DtoDindex 66 → 7432d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 74Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 1.2 → 1.5forecast component 54.0 → 56.3
- DtoDindex 75 → 66Red → Orange32d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 43); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 5.1 → 1.2forecast component 59.3 → 54.0
- DtoDindex 75 → 75Orange → Red33d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)population component 4.8 → 5.1
- DtoDindex 69 → 7533d agoActivity score changed from 69 to 75Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 1.7 → 4.8forecast component 42.5 → 59.3