Calamity
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Rating

Philippines risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 31.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated8m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-13 09:31:07 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 11:31:07 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity2322.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy1515.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Volcano

Mean event index: 57/100 · Eligible records: 2

Rating history

  1. CtoBindex 50 → 3123h ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 50 → 31)Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 62.8 → 22.8forecast component 30.0 → 15.0

    Country rating changed from C to B (score 50 → 31). Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. severity component 62.8 → 22.8. forecast component 30.0 → 15.0. Context: EVENT: Kanlaon — PH Detected: 2026-10-10T05:58:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: high URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 2,169,758 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PH. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. CtoCindex 44 → 501d ago
    Activity score changed from 44 to 50Current dominant event: Kanlaon (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 47.8 → 62.8
  3. CtoCindex 59 → 441d ago
    Activity score changed from 59 to 44Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 86.0 → 47.8forecast component 32.3 → 30.0
  4. BtoCindex 27 → 591d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 27 → 59)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 86.0forecast component 18.0 → 32.3
  5. BtoBindex 40 → 273d ago
    Activity score changed from 40 to 27Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.2 → 11.4forecast component 31.5 → 18.0
  6. CtoBindex 41 → 403d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 40)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 39.2
  7. BtoCindex 28 → 413d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 28 → 41)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 40.2forecast component 18.0 → 31.5
  8. CtoBindex 41 → 283d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 28)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.2 → 12.4forecast component 31.5 → 18.0
  9. BtoCindex 40 → 413d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 41)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.2 → 40.2
  10. DtoBindex 64 → 404d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 64 → 40)Current dominant event: Taal (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 97.4 → 39.2forecast component 34.5 → 31.5
  11. BtoDindex 40 → 644d ago
    Country rating changed from B to D (score 40 → 64)Current dominant event: M 5.5 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.6 → 97.4forecast component 31.5 → 34.5
  12. AtoBindex 9 → 40Green → Yellow5d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 9 → 40)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: M 5.5 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.2 → 38.6population component 16.0 → 100.0forecast component 18.0 → 31.5
  13. DtoAindex 62 → 9Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from D to A (score 62 → 9)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.5 Earthquake (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.6 → 8.2population component 100.0 → 16.0forecast component 51.0 → 18.0
  14. DtoDindex 68 → 625d ago
    Activity score changed from 68 to 62Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 85.6forecast component 54.0 → 51.0
  15. CtoDindex 48 → 685d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 48 → 68)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.2 → 100.0forecast component 36.0 → 54.0
  16. DtoCindex 65 → 486d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 48)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 56.2
  17. CtoDindex 48 → 656d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 48 → 65)Current dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.2 → 100.0
  18. AtoCindex 8 → 48Green → Yellow6d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 8 → 48)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: General Flood Advisory (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 56.2population component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 40.5 → 36.0
  19. BtoAindex 26 → 810d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 8)Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 5.4population component 88.7 → 0.0forecast component 27.8 → 40.5
  20. BtoBindex 30 → 26Yellow → Green11d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Mayon (Philippines) - Report for 16 September-22 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 9.6population component 89.7 → 88.7forecast component 24.5 → 27.8
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