Calamity
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Rating

Timor-Leste risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 35.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated11m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 17:48:21 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 19:48:21 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity1111.4/100
Scenario weight100100.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI43.5/100
CFI activity proxy3030.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 57/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. BtoBindex 27 → 3418h ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 34Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.0 → 10.6cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 0.0 → 0.5forecast component 38.3 → 30.0

    Activity score changed from 27 to 34. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed. 2 new cascade alert(s). severity component 10.0 → 10.6. cascade component 70.0 → 100.0. population component 0.0 → 0.5. forecast component 38.3 → 30.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — TL Detected: 2026-10-11T16:37:00.000Z CalamityScore: 53/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 4,701 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: TL. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoBindex 36 → 274d ago
    Activity score changed from 36 to 27Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 10.0cascade component 90.0 → 70.0population component 0.4 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 38.3
  3. BtoBindex 27 → 366d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 36Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 8.2 → 19.8cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.0 → 0.4forecast component 38.3 → 39.8
  4. BtoBindex 37 → 276d ago
    Activity score changed from 37 to 27Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 8.2cascade component 90.0 → 70.0population component 1.0 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 38.3
  5. BtoBindex 27 → 377d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 37Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 9.8 → 21.6cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.9 → 1.0forecast component 38.3 → 39.8
  6. BtoBindex 37 → 277d ago
    Activity score changed from 37 to 27Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 49); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.6 → 9.8cascade component 90.0 → 70.0population component 1.2 → 0.9forecast component 39.8 → 38.3
  7. BtoBindex 27 → 377d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 37Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.0 → 20.6cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.0 → 1.2forecast component 38.3 → 39.8
  8. BtoBindex 36 → 277d ago
    Activity score changed from 36 to 27Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.8 → 10.0cascade component 90.0 → 70.0population component 0.3 → 0.0forecast component 39.8 → 38.3
  9. BtoBindex 27 → 368d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 36Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.0 → 19.8cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.0 → 0.3forecast component 38.3 → 39.8
  10. AtoBindex 13 → 27Yellow → Orange8d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 27)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 14.4 → 10.0cascade component 0.0 → 70.0forecast component 45.0 → 38.3
  11. BtoAindex 37 → 13Orange → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 37 → 13)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.4 → 14.4cascade component 70.0 → 0.0population component 3.3 → 0.0forecast component 44.3 → 45.0
  12. AtoBindex 11 → 37Yellow → Orange8d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 37)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 10.8 → 30.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 3.3forecast component 45.0 → 44.3
  13. BtoAindex 32 → 11Orange → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 11)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.8 → 10.8cascade component 70.0 → 0.0forecast component 44.3 → 45.0
  14. AtoBindex 12 → 32Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 32)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 12.6 → 20.8cascade component 0.0 → 70.0forecast component 45.0 → 44.3
  15. CtoAindex 45 → 12Orange → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 45 → 12)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 36.8 → 12.6cascade component 90.0 → 0.0population component 4.2 → 0.0forecast component 49.5 → 45.0
  16. BtoCindex 38 → 459d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 45)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 33.2 → 36.8cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 0.6 → 4.2forecast component 44.3 → 49.5
  17. CtoBindex 41 → 389d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 38)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.6 → 33.2population component 11.2 → 0.6
  18. AtoCindex 19 → 4110d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 19 → 41)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 29.4 → 35.6cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 3.5 → 11.2forecast component 45.0 → 44.3
  19. CtoAindex 52 → 19Red → Orange10d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 52 → 19)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.8 → 29.4cascade component 100.0 → 0.0population component 9.9 → 3.5forecast component 49.5 → 45.0
  20. BtoCindex 34 → 52Orange → Red11d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 52)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 67); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 23.2 → 44.8cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 3.9 → 9.9forecast component 43.5 → 49.5
Forecast for Timor-LesteActive events in Timor-Leste