Rating
Turkmenistan risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-03 00:00:23 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-03 02:00:23 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 14/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- AtoAindex 9 → 7Yellow → Green10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 3.6forecast component 37.5 → 36.0
Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed. severity component 7.2 → 3.6. forecast component 37.5 → 36.0. Context: EVENT: Moderate Wildfire — TM Detected: 2026-10-01T21:59:00.000Z CalamityScore: 18/100 Severity: medium CONTEXT: Country: TM. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- AtoAindex 8 → 9Green → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 9 → 8Yellow → Green11d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 5.4
- AtoAindex 7 → 9Green → Yellow11d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 7.2forecast component 40.5 → 37.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 7Yellow → Green12d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 1.8forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 9Green → Yellow13d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.2forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green13d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 7 → 8Green → Yellow13d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 5.4forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 7Yellow → Green14d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 1.8forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 7 → 9Green → Yellow14d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 7.2forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 7Yellow → Green15d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 1.8forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 9 → 9Green → Yellow16d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed
- AtoAindex 10 → 9Yellow → Green16d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 7.2
- AtoAindex 9 → 10Green → Yellow17d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 9.0
- AtoAindex 9 → 9Yellow → Green17d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributed
- AtoAindex 8 → 9Green → Yellow18d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 7.2forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green23d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Green → Yellow24d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 5.4forecast component 40.5 → 42.0
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Yellow → Green24d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6forecast component 42.0 → 40.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 8Green → Yellow25d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 5.4forecast component 40.5 → 42.0