Calamity
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Rating

Tunisia risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 11.0/100
Operational statusGreen, expired
Last updated2d ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-09 23:43:44 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-10 01:43:44 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity98.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI66.1/100
CFI activity proxy4242.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 12 → 10Yellow → Green7d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 7.8population component 0.8 → 4.1

    Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributed. severity component 14.2 → 7.8. population component 0.8 → 4.1. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — TN Detected: 2026-10-04T01:43:00.000Z CalamityScore: 39/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 40,850 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: TN. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 20 → 12Red → Yellow8d ago
    Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.6 → 14.2population component 17.1 → 0.8forecast component 43.5 → 42.0
  3. AtoAindex 13 → 20Orange → Red8d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 24.6population component 7.1 → 17.1forecast component 42.0 → 43.5
  4. AtoAindex 19 → 139d ago
    Activity score changed from 19 to 13Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.6 → 12.4population component 14.1 → 7.1forecast component 43.5 → 42.0
  5. AtoAindex 13 → 199d ago
    Activity score changed from 13 to 19Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 23.6population component 12.2 → 14.1forecast component 42.0 → 43.5
  6. BtoAindex 23 → 1310d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 13)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.6 → 11.4population component 18.0 → 12.2forecast component 43.5 → 42.0
  7. AtoBindex 16 → 2310d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 23)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.0 → 31.6population component 0.9 → 18.0
  8. BtoAindex 21 → 1611d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 16)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.8 → 23.0population component 11.5 → 0.9forecast component 48.0 → 43.5
  9. AtoBindex 20 → 2111d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 21)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.6 → 27.8population component 11.7 → 11.5
  10. AtoAindex 15 → 2011d ago
    Activity score changed from 15 to 20Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.8 → 26.6population component 7.0 → 11.7forecast component 46.5 → 48.0
  11. BtoAindex 22 → 15Red → Orange12d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 15)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 17.8population component 12.1 → 7.0forecast component 49.5 → 46.5
  12. BtoBindex 21 → 22Orange → Red12d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.2 → 30.2population component 9.6 → 12.1
  13. AtoBindex 18 → 2112d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 21)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.8 → 29.2population component 9.5 → 9.6forecast component 46.5 → 49.5
  14. BtoAindex 28 → 18Red → Orange13d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 18)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.8 → 23.8population component 21.4 → 9.5forecast component 52.5 → 46.5
  15. AtoBindex 17 → 28Orange → Red13d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 28)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.0 → 38.8population component 7.8 → 21.4forecast component 46.5 → 52.5
  16. BtoAindex 21 → 1714d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 17)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.2 → 22.0population component 8.7 → 7.8forecast component 51.0 → 46.5
  17. AtoBindex 13 → 21Yellow → Orange14d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 21)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 29.2population component 0.0 → 8.7forecast component 48.0 → 51.0
  18. AtoAindex 11 → 13Green → Yellow14d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 14.4forecast component 46.5 → 48.0
  19. BtoAindex 25 → 11Orange → Green15d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 25 → 11)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.2 → 10.8population component 14.1 → 0.0forecast component 51.0 → 46.5
  20. AtoBindex 20 → 2515d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 25)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.2 → 35.2population component 11.3 → 14.1forecast component 48.0 → 51.0
Forecast for TunisiaActive events in Tunisia