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Ukraine risk rating

Activity gradeBindex 37.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated4m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-18 19:40:34 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-18 21:40:34 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity2727.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy3939.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Weather

Mean event index: 34/100 · Eligible records: 4

Rating history

  1. CtoBindex 46 → 371h ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 46 → 37)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Port of Chornomorsk, Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.4 → 27.2

    Country rating changed from C to B (score 46 → 37). Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Port of Chornomorsk, Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributed. severity component 49.4 → 27.2. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — Port of Chornomorsk, Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine — UA Detected: 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 46/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 1,121,536 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: UA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoCindex 28 → 461h ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 28 → 46)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Port of Chornomorsk, Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.6 → 49.4population component 50.9 → 100.0
  3. AtoBindex 15 → 28Green → Yellow13h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 28)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, Strait of Kerch, Western Sea of Azov, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 29.6population component 36.7 → 50.9forecast component 30.0 → 39.0
  4. BtoAindex 23 → 151d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 15)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Cherkasy, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.8 → 7.4population component 59.3 → 36.7forecast component 33.0 → 30.0
  5. AtoBindex 10 → 231d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 23)Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Cherkasy, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 14.8population component 14.9 → 59.3forecast component 30.0 → 33.0
  6. BtoAindex 26 → 10Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kerch, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.4 → 7.4population component 48.1 → 14.9forecast component 39.0 → 30.0
  7. AtoBindex 10 → 26Green → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Danube Delta, Dniester estuary, Karkinitsky gulf, Open sea of Northwestern area of Black sea, Zmiinyi Island, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 25.4population component 14.9 → 48.1forecast component 30.0 → 39.0
  8. BtoAindex 37 → 10Yellow → Green3d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 37 → 10)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kerch, Ukraine (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.2 → 7.4population component 100.0 → 14.9forecast component 39.0 → 30.0
  9. BtoBindex 32 → 37Green → Yellow4d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Port of Chornomorsk, Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.6 → 27.2forecast component 33.0 → 39.0
  10. CtoBindex 42 → 32Yellow → Green4d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 42 → 32)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Port of Odessa, Port of Pivdenny, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.6 → 16.6forecast component 40.5 → 33.0
  11. CtoCindex 49 → 424d ago
    Activity score changed from 49 to 42Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Kharkiv, Ukraine (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.4 → 40.6forecast component 50.3 → 40.5
  12. AtoCindex 17 → 49Green → Yellow5d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 49)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.0 → 53.4population component 21.1 → 100.0forecast component 44.3 → 50.3
  13. CtoAindex 45 → 17Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 45 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.2 → 16.0population component 100.0 → 21.1forecast component 49.5 → 44.3
  14. CtoCindex 60 → 455d ago
    Activity score changed from 60 to 45Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.4 → 44.2
  15. BtoCindex 35 → 606d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 60)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 50.0 → 81.4population component 30.4 → 100.0forecast component 60.0 → 49.5
  16. BtoBindex 27 → 356d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 36.6 → 50.0population component 18.9 → 30.4
  17. AtoBindex 17 → 27Green → Yellow6d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 27)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.4 → 36.6population component 2.4 → 18.9
  18. BtoAindex 34 → 177d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 17)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 18.4population component 100.0 → 2.4
  19. AtoBindex 12 → 3410d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 34)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 13.2population component 0.0 → 100.0
  20. BtoAindex 40 → 12Yellow → Green14d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 40 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.8 → 7.2population component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 48.0 → 60.0
Forecast for UkraineActive events in Ukraine