Forecast
Italy risk assessment
7 of 9 hazard scores have expired or lack recorded validity and are shown only as last assessments, excluded from the current maximum and colours. Missing or expired coverage does not establish zero hazard.
The CFI is a heuristic activity and scenario index. The activity rating aggregates reported events and shares inputs with CFI. Neither is a calibrated probability or a measure of structural vulnerability. Unlisted country–hazard pairs are unassessed, not zero. Model cards and formulas.
Risk assessment by hazard type
| Hazard | Score | Level | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weather | Elevated | High historical recurrence for Severe Weather in Italy | |
| Fire | Moderate | Global calendar prior for Wildfire (July/August/September); no local seasonal estimate for Italy | |
| Flood | Unassessed, last moderate | Retired model: explanation withheld | |
| Air Quality | Expired, last moderate | Scenario to monitor: Air Quality Emergency from Extended satellite heat detection; uncalibrated interaction weight; target extent not determined | |
| Landslide | Expired, last moderate | High historical recurrence for Landslide in Italy | |
| Disease | Unassessed, last moderate | Retired model: explanation withheld | |
| Volcano | Unassessed, last moderate | Retired model: explanation withheld | |
| Earthquake | Expired, last low | Not recorded | |
| River Flood | Expired, last low | Not recorded |
Weatherrecorded inputs
Current assessment · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-10 01:05:43 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-10 03:05:43 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 7
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 42 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Firerecorded inputs
Current assessment · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-09 23:59:50 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-10 01:59:50 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 78
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 36 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Floodrecorded inputs
Not currently assessed · Model legacy
Computed: 2026-09-14 04:52:36 UTC · Valid until: Not recorded
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
Air Qualityrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-09 20:38:13 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-09 22:38:13 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 31
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 11 · Target scenario weight: 50 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Landsliderecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-07 17:18:51 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-07 19:18:51 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- reporting days only
- reporting Days:
- 4
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 26 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
Diseaserecorded inputs
Not currently assessed · Model legacy
Computed: 2026-04-13 13:48:08 UTC · Valid until: Not recorded
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
Volcanorecorded inputs
Not currently assessed · Model legacy
Computed: 2026-09-14 06:10:38 UTC · Valid until: Not recorded
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
Earthquakerecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-08 03:46:42 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-08 05:46:42 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- not evaluated
- reporting Days:
- 0
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 14 · Target scenario weight: 0 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary
River Floodrecorded inputs
Expired, last assessment only · Model cfi-2
Computed: 2026-10-05 18:57:11 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-05 20:57:11 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- baseline:
- not evaluated
- reporting Days:
- 0
- seasonal:
- global prior
- selection:
- top 100 countries by current records
- frequency Unit:
- episode records per reporting day
Observed activity: 6.300000000000001 · Target scenario weight: 9 · Target location: not determined; source country is a reference, not a target boundary