Rating
Ecuador risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 14.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated21m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-08 11:04:44 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-08 13:04:44 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity11.4/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI14.9/100
CFI activity proxy43.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 57/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- AtoAindex 9 → 1713h agoActivity score changed from 9 to 17Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 18.6population component 0.0 → 16.0
Activity score changed from 9 to 17. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. severity component 7.2 → 18.6. population component 0.0 → 16.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — EC Detected: 2026-10-07T19:23:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 159,735 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: EC. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 22 → 91d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 9)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.2 → 7.2population component 22.9 → 0.0
- AtoBindex 12 → 221d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 28.2population component 7.0 → 22.9
- BtoAindex 22 → 122d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 12)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.2 → 10.6population component 19.4 → 7.0
- AtoBindex 14 → 222d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 14 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 28.2population component 4.2 → 19.4
- AtoAindex 9 → 142d agoActivity score changed from 9 to 14Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 16.8population component 0.0 → 4.2
- AtoAindex 12 → 9Yellow → Green3d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 7.2population component 4.0 → 0.0forecast component 30.8 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 8 → 12Green → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Very Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 222) (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 16.8population component 0.0 → 4.0forecast component 43.5 → 30.8
- AtoAindex 9 → 8Yellow → Green4d agoOperational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 3.6
- AtoAindex 14 → 95d agoActivity score changed from 14 to 9Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.0 → 5.4population component 18.2 → 0.0forecast component 26.3 → 43.5
- AtoAindex 12 → 14Green → Yellow6d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Sangay (Ecuador) - Report for 16 September-22 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 16.0
- BtoAindex 34 → 12Red → Green6d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 34 → 12)Operational status changed from red to greenCurrent dominant event: Sangay (Ecuador) - Report for 16 September-22 September 2026 - Continuing Eruptive Activity (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 50.0 → 10.6population component 30.9 → 18.2forecast component 52.5 → 26.3
- BtoBindex 21 → 34Orange → Red7d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.4 → 50.0population component 6.1 → 30.9forecast component 48.0 → 52.5
- AtoBindex 17 → 217d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 21)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 31.4population component 4.8 → 6.1
- AtoAindex 14 → 17Yellow → Orange8d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 21.6population component 0.0 → 4.8
- AtoAindex 19 → 14Orange → Yellow8d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.4 → 16.2population component 0.1 → 0.0forecast component 49.5 → 48.0
- CtoAindex 42 → 198d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 42 → 19)Current dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.2 → 29.4population component 100.0 → 0.1forecast component 33.8 → 49.5
- AtoCindex 18 → 428d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 18 → 42)Current dominant event: Hazardous Air Quality (AQI 999) (CalamityScore 73); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.8 → 42.2population component 0.1 → 100.0forecast component 48.0 → 33.8
- AtoAindex 15 → 18Yellow → Orange9d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.6 → 25.8
- AtoAindex 18 → 15Orange → Yellow9d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Minor Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.2 → 18.6population component 0.0 → 0.1forecast component 49.5 → 48.0