Calamity
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Rating

Guyana risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 14.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated26m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity1818.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI32.6/100
CFI activity proxy4443.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 46/100 · Eligible records: 2

Rating history

  1. BtoAindex 23 → 13Yellow → Green21h ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.0 → 16.0population component 13.1 → 0.9forecast component 43.5 → 45.0

    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 13). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributed. severity component 35.0 → 16.0. population component 13.1 → 0.9. forecast component 43.5 → 45.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — GY Detected: 2026-10-11T17:26:00.000Z CalamityScore: 44/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 9,247 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: GY. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoBindex 20 → 23Green → Yellow1d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 23)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.4 → 35.0population component 15.1 → 13.1
  3. AtoAindex 11 → 201d ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 20Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 26.4population component 3.1 → 15.1forecast component 45.0 → 43.5
  4. BtoAindex 23 → 11Yellow → Green1d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.4 → 9.6population component 15.3 → 3.1
  5. AtoBindex 9 → 23Green → Yellow2d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 9 → 23)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 5.4 → 32.4population component 0.0 → 15.3
  6. AtoAindex 16 → 92d ago
    Activity score changed from 16 to 9Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.2 → 5.4population component 2.4 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 45.0
  7. AtoAindex 9 → 163d ago
    Activity score changed from 9 to 16Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 22.2population component 0.0 → 2.4
  8. AtoAindex 17 → 93d ago
    Activity score changed from 17 to 9Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.8 → 7.2population component 3.8 → 0.0
  9. AtoAindex 10 → 174d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 17Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 23.8population component 0.5 → 3.8forecast component 45.0 → 43.5
  10. AtoAindex 19 → 104d ago
    Activity score changed from 19 to 10Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.6 → 8.8population component 14.3 → 0.5
  11. BtoAindex 21 → 195d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 19)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.2 → 24.6population component 15.7 → 14.3
  12. AtoBindex 20 → 216d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 21)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.4 → 28.2population component 15.5 → 15.7
  13. AtoAindex 12 → 20Yellow → Green6d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 26.4population component 1.8 → 15.5
  14. BtoAindex 24 → 12Red → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 12)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.6 → 13.2population component 3.6 → 1.8forecast component 46.5 → 45.0
  15. BtoBindex 21 → 24Orange → Red9d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 40.6population component 1.8 → 3.6
  16. BtoBindex 21 → 21Red → Orange9d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.8 → 34.6population component 4.8 → 1.8forecast component 43.5 → 46.5
  17. AtoBindex 15 → 21Orange → Red10d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 21)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.4 → 32.8population component 1.2 → 4.8
  18. AtoAindex 17 → 15Red → Orange10d ago
    Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.6 → 20.4population component 1.1 → 1.2
  19. AtoAindex 15 → 17Orange → Red11d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.4 → 26.6population component 0.4 → 1.1
  20. AtoAindex 11 → 15Yellow → Orange11d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 21.4population component 0.1 → 0.4
Forecast for GuyanaActive events in Guyana