Rating
Iran risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 23:40:40 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 01:40:40 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 45/100 · Eligible records: 5
Rating history
- AtoBindex 19 → 33Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 33)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.8 → 43.0population component 8.5 → 36.9
Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 33). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 22.8 → 43.0. population component 8.5 → 36.9. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — IR Detected: 2026-10-11T23:12:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 40,889 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoAindex 46 → 19Yellow → Green1d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 19)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.0 → 22.8population component 74.9 → 8.5
- AtoCindex 17 → 46Green → Yellow2d agoCountry rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 46)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.6 → 56.0population component 8.6 → 74.9
- BtoAindex 38 → 17Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 57.6 → 15.6population component 30.3 → 8.6
- BtoBindex 22 → 38Green → Yellow3d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 57.6population component 10.5 → 30.3
- AtoBindex 13 → 223d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 28.8population component 3.4 → 10.5
- CtoAindex 51 → 13Yellow → Green3d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 51 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.8 → 9.6population component 67.0 → 3.4
- BtoCindex 26 → 514d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 51)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.4 → 72.8population component 12.0 → 67.0
- BtoBindex 23 → 26Green → Yellow4d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 37.4population component 10.4 → 12.0
- CtoBindex 53 → 23Yellow → Green4d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 53 → 23)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.0 → 30.2population component 71.9 → 10.4
- BtoCindex 39 → 534d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 53)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.8 → 75.0population component 40.8 → 71.9
- BtoBindex 32 → 395d agoActivity score changed from 32 to 39Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.2 → 55.8population component 34.2 → 40.8
- BtoBindex 27 → 325d agoActivity score changed from 27 to 32Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.8 → 41.2population component 18.1 → 34.2
- BtoBindex 23 → 27Green → Yellow5d agoOperational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 37.8population component 19.8 → 18.1
- CtoBindex 57 → 23Yellow → Green5d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 57 → 23)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.8 → 27.0population component 77.0 → 19.8
- CtoCindex 51 → 575d agoActivity score changed from 51 to 57Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 82.8population component 75.2 → 77.0
- BtoCindex 30 → 516d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 30 → 51)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.2 → 68.8population component 18.8 → 75.2
- CtoBindex 47 → 306d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 47 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.2 → 44.2population component 49.5 → 18.8
- BtoCindex 35 → 477d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 47)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.6 → 71.2population component 32.7 → 49.5
- BtoBindex 29 → 357d agoActivity score changed from 29 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.2 → 48.6population component 15.9 → 32.7