Calamity
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Rating

Iran risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentBindex 34.0/100
Operational statusYellow, expired
Last updated11h ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 23:40:40 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-13 01:40:40 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity4544.8/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI3837.5/100
CFI activity proxy5757.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 45/100 · Eligible records: 5

Rating history

  1. AtoBindex 19 → 33Green → Yellow1d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 33)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 22.8 → 43.0population component 8.5 → 36.9

    Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 33). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 22.8 → 43.0. population component 8.5 → 36.9. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — IR Detected: 2026-10-11T23:12:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 40,889 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. CtoAindex 46 → 19Yellow → Green1d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 46 → 19)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.0 → 22.8population component 74.9 → 8.5
  3. AtoCindex 17 → 46Green → Yellow2d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 17 → 46)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 15.6 → 56.0population component 8.6 → 74.9
  4. BtoAindex 38 → 17Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 57.6 → 15.6population component 30.3 → 8.6
  5. BtoBindex 22 → 38Green → Yellow2d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 57.6population component 10.5 → 30.3
  6. AtoBindex 13 → 223d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 28.8population component 3.4 → 10.5
  7. CtoAindex 51 → 13Yellow → Green3d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 51 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.8 → 9.6population component 67.0 → 3.4
  8. BtoCindex 26 → 514d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 51)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.4 → 72.8population component 12.0 → 67.0
  9. BtoBindex 23 → 26Green → Yellow4d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 30.2 → 37.4population component 10.4 → 12.0
  10. CtoBindex 53 → 23Yellow → Green4d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 53 → 23)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.0 → 30.2population component 71.9 → 10.4
  11. BtoCindex 39 → 534d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 53)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 55.8 → 75.0population component 40.8 → 71.9
  12. BtoBindex 32 → 394d ago
    Activity score changed from 32 to 39Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.2 → 55.8population component 34.2 → 40.8
  13. BtoBindex 27 → 325d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 32Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.8 → 41.2population component 18.1 → 34.2
  14. BtoBindex 23 → 27Green → Yellow5d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.0 → 37.8population component 19.8 → 18.1
  15. CtoBindex 57 → 23Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 57 → 23)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.8 → 27.0population component 77.0 → 19.8
  16. CtoCindex 51 → 575d ago
    Activity score changed from 51 to 57Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.8 → 82.8population component 75.2 → 77.0
  17. BtoCindex 30 → 516d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 30 → 51)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.2 → 68.8population component 18.8 → 75.2
  18. CtoBindex 47 → 306d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 47 → 30)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.2 → 44.2population component 49.5 → 18.8
  19. BtoCindex 35 → 476d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 47)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.6 → 71.2population component 32.7 → 49.5
  20. BtoBindex 29 → 357d ago
    Activity score changed from 29 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.2 → 48.6population component 15.9 → 32.7
Forecast for IranActive events in Iran