Calamity
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Rating

Nigeria risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 18.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated26m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 12:22:40 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 14:22:40 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity2726.6/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI32.9/100
CFI activity proxy4242.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 3

Rating history

  1. BtoAindex 31 → 18Yellow → Green12h ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 18)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.0 → 26.6population component 37.4 → 2.9

    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 18). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributed. severity component 42.0 → 26.6. population component 37.4 → 2.9. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — NG Detected: 2026-10-11T13:08:00.000Z CalamityScore: 55/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 13,330 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: NG. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoBindex 19 → 31Green → Yellow21h ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 19 → 31)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 42.0population component 3.8 → 37.4
  3. AtoAindex 11 → 1922h ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 19Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.0 → 28.8population component 1.2 → 3.8
  4. BtoAindex 26 → 11Yellow → Green1d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 11.0population component 20.1 → 1.2
  5. AtoBindex 15 → 26Green → Yellow1d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.0 → 38.4population component 1.1 → 20.1
  6. AtoAindex 10 → 152d ago
    Activity score changed from 10 to 15Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.0 → 20.0population component 0.6 → 1.1
  7. BtoAindex 31 → 107d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 31 → 10)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 10.0population component 100.0 → 0.6
  8. AtoBindex 10 → 31Yellow → Green8d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 10 → 31)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 11.4population component 0.0 → 100.0
  9. BtoAindex 32 → 10Orange → Yellow8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 32 → 10)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.6 → 9.0population component 40.3 → 0.0forecast component 49.5 → 42.0
  10. BtoBindex 22 → 32Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 40.6population component 1.7 → 40.3
  11. AtoBindex 18 → 229d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 22)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 35); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.8 → 34.6population component 1.7 → 1.7forecast component 46.5 → 49.5
  12. CtoAindex 54 → 18Red → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 54 → 18)Operational status changed from red to yellowCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 30); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.4 → 25.8population component 100.0 → 1.7forecast component 51.0 → 46.5
  13. CtoCindex 48 → 54Orange → Red10d ago
    Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 52.0 → 66.4population component 97.3 → 100.0
  14. BtoCindex 26 → 4810d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 48)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.4 → 52.0population component 17.2 → 97.3forecast component 48.0 → 51.0
  15. AtoBindex 17 → 26Yellow → Orange11d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 26)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.2 → 38.4population component 0.0 → 17.2
  16. AtoAindex 11 → 1711d ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 17Current dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 25.2forecast component 46.5 → 48.0
  17. AtoAindex 7 → 11Green → Yellow12d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 1.8 → 10.8forecast component 45.0 → 46.5
  18. AtoAindex 13 → 7Yellow → Green12d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.4 → 1.8forecast component 46.5 → 45.0
  19. AtoAindex 18 → 1313d ago
    Activity score changed from 18 to 13Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 25.2 → 14.4forecast component 51.0 → 46.5
  20. AtoAindex 13 → 1813d ago
    Activity score changed from 13 to 18Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.2 → 25.2forecast component 46.5 → 51.0
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