Rating
Syria risk rating
Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 11:11:24 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 13:11:24 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 48/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- BtoAindex 26 → 121d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 12)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 33.4 → 9.6population component 23.8 → 2.8
Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 12). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 33.4 → 9.6. population component 23.8 → 2.8. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — SY Detected: 2026-10-11T22:14:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 28,482 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: SY. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoBindex 21 → 262d agoActivity score changed from 21 to 26Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.4 → 33.4population component 19.2 → 23.8
- AtoBindex 20 → 212d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 21)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 21.6 → 23.4population component 19.1 → 19.2
- CtoAindex 51 → 20Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 51 → 20)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 59.2 → 21.6population component 100.0 → 19.1
- BtoCindex 25 → 51Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 25 → 51)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.2 → 59.2population component 26.1 → 100.0
- AtoBindex 16 → 253d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 16 → 25)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.6 → 31.2population component 8.4 → 26.1
- BtoAindex 27 → 163d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 27 → 16)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.0 → 17.6population component 30.8 → 8.4
- AtoBindex 15 → 275d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 27)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 11.4 → 34.0population component 14.5 → 30.8
- BtoAindex 22 → 156d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 15)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.2 → 11.4population component 19.1 → 14.5
- AtoBindex 17 → 228d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 22)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.2 → 27.2population component 11.5 → 19.1
- BtoAindex 23 → 178d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 23 → 17)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.8 → 19.2population component 20.2 → 11.5
- AtoBindex 20 → 239d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 23)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 20.2 → 29.8population component 22.5 → 20.2
- BtoAindex 24 → 20Red → Green9d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 24 → 20)Operational status changed from red to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.2 → 20.2
- AtoBindex 17 → 24Orange → Red9d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 24)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.4 → 29.2population component 7.2 → 22.5
- BtoAindex 22 → 17Red → Orange9d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 22 → 17)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 29.2 → 19.4population component 13.4 → 7.2
- AtoBindex 18 → 22Orange → Red10d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 22)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 23.8 → 29.2population component 5.6 → 13.4
- AtoAindex 13 → 1810d agoActivity score changed from 13 to 18Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 23.8population component 3.7 → 5.6
- AtoAindex 11 → 13Yellow → Orange10d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.0 → 13.2population component 0.0 → 3.7
- AtoAindex 11 → 11Orange → Yellow10d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.8 → 9.0population component 3.7 → 0.0
- AtoAindex 18 → 1110d agoActivity score changed from 18 to 11Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.0 → 7.8population component 3.8 → 3.7