Calamity
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Rating

Turkey risk rating

Activity gradeDindex 69.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated10m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity100100.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy5757.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 49/100 · Eligible records: 21

Rating history

  1. DtoDindex 62 → 691d ago
    Activity score changed from 62 to 69Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedseverity component 84.6 → 100.0

    Activity score changed from 62 to 69. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed. severity component 84.6 → 100.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — TR Detected: 2026-10-10T10:11:00.000Z CalamityScore: 68/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 891,527 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: TR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. CtoDindex 54 → 621d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 54 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 64.0 → 84.6
  3. CtoCindex 47 → 542d ago
    Activity score changed from 47 to 54Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 46.4 → 64.0
  4. DtoCindex 65 → 472d ago
    Country rating changed from D to C (score 65 → 47)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.2 → 46.4
  5. CtoDindex 56 → 652d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 56 → 65)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 67.4 → 92.2
  6. BtoCindex 37 → 563d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 37 → 56)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.2 → 67.4population component 45.7 → 100.0
  7. DtoBindex 62 → 373d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 37)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.4 → 48.2population component 100.0 → 45.7
  8. AtoDindex 17 → 62Green → Yellow3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to D (score 17 → 62)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 66); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.6 → 82.4population component 8.6 → 100.0
  9. CtoAindex 45 → 17Yellow → Green4d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 45 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 41.2 → 16.6population component 100.0 → 8.6
  10. BtoCindex 35 → 45Green → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 45)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.8 → 41.2
  11. AtoBindex 11 → 355d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 35)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.2 → 16.8population component 0.0 → 100.0
  12. CtoAindex 41 → 11Yellow → Green5d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 41 → 11)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 31.6 → 7.2population component 100.0 → 0.0
  13. AtoCindex 18 → 41Green → Yellow5d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 18 → 41)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.6 → 31.6population component 12.7 → 100.0
  14. AtoAindex 12 → 186d ago
    Activity score changed from 12 to 18Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 16.6population component 0.2 → 12.7
  15. CtoAindex 41 → 12Yellow → Green6d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 41 → 12)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 60.4 → 8.8population component 43.1 → 0.2
  16. BtoCindex 40 → 416d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 41)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.8 → 60.4population component 43.3 → 43.1
  17. BtoBindex 29 → 406d ago
    Activity score changed from 29 to 40Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 44.8 → 56.8population component 27.9 → 43.3forecast component 37.5 → 57.0
  18. BtoBindex 34 → 297d ago
    Activity score changed from 34 to 29Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.4 → 44.8population component 33.6 → 27.9
  19. AtoBindex 13 → 34Green → Yellow7d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 34)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 8.8 → 53.4population component 5.8 → 33.6forecast component 57.0 → 37.5
  20. BtoAindex 38 → 13Orange → Green7d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 38 → 13)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.0 → 8.8population component 9.7 → 5.8
Forecast for TurkeyActive events in Turkey