Rating
South Africa risk rating
Activity gradeBindex 37.0/100
Operational statusYellow
Last updated26m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 21:01:22 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 23:01:22 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity51.8/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI36.7/100
CFI activity proxy61.5/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 52/100 · Eligible records: 5
Rating history
- AtoBindex 17 → 36Green → Yellow6h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 36)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.2 → 48.4population component 1.7 → 34.7
Country rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 36). Operational status changed from green to yellow. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributed. severity component 18.2 → 48.4. population component 1.7 → 34.7. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ZA Detected: 2026-10-12T10:58:00.000Z CalamityScore: 57/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 183,867 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ZA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- BtoAindex 36 → 17Yellow → Green6h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 36 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.4 → 18.2population component 34.7 → 1.7
- AtoBindex 17 → 36Green → Yellow8h agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 36)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 19.6 → 48.4population component 2.0 → 34.7
- BtoAindex 21 → 1721h agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 21 → 17)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.0 → 19.6population component 5.3 → 2.0
- CtoBindex 48 → 21Orange → Green21h agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 48 → 21)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.4 → 26.0cascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 56.3 → 61.5
- BtoCindex 39 → 481d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 48)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 20.6 → 34.4cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 2.1 → 5.3forecast component 55.5 → 56.3
- EtoBindex 85 → 391d agoCountry rating changed from E to B (score 85 → 39)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 20.6cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 55.1 → 2.1forecast component 58.5 → 55.5
- DtoEindex 78 → 852d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 78 → 85)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 86.2 → 100.0population component 48.8 → 55.1
- DtoDindex 61 → 782d agoActivity score changed from 61 to 78Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 65.0 → 86.2population component 5.8 → 48.8
- EtoDindex 83 → 612d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 83 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 65.0population component 45.6 → 5.8
- DtoEindex 77 → 833d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 77 → 83)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 73); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 85.6 → 100.0population component 44.5 → 45.6
- DtoDindex 69 → 773d agoActivity score changed from 69 to 77Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 71.0 → 85.6population component 35.9 → 44.5
- CtoDindex 53 → 693d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 69)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 44.6 → 71.0population component 8.2 → 35.9forecast component 57.8 → 58.5
- EtoCindex 83 → 533d agoCountry rating changed from E to C (score 83 → 53)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.6 → 44.6population component 52.9 → 8.2forecast component 58.5 → 57.8
- DtoEindex 68 → 834d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 68 → 83)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 61.4 → 96.6population component 48.7 → 52.9
- DtoDindex 63 → 684d agoActivity score changed from 63 to 68Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.6 → 61.4population component 45.8 → 48.7forecast component 57.8 → 58.5
- CtoDindex 49 → 634d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 49 → 63)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 37.2 → 49.6population component 2.1 → 45.8forecast component 56.3 → 57.8
- DtoCindex 75 → 494d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 75 → 49)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 74.8 → 37.2population component 55.3 → 2.1forecast component 58.5 → 56.3
- DtoDindex 64 → 755d agoActivity score changed from 64 to 75Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.6 → 74.8population component 51.0 → 55.3forecast component 57.8 → 58.5
- CtoDindex 58 → 645d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 58 → 64)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 35.8 → 49.6population component 48.9 → 51.0forecast component 57.0 → 57.8