Calamity
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Rating

Guam risk rating

Last activity grade, not currentAindex 6.0/100
Operational statusGreen, expired
Last updated6h ago

Expired, last assessment only · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 03:53:17 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 05:53:17 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

This is a last assessment, not a current rating. Its validity has expired or was not recorded. That does not establish that no events or hazards are present.

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity66.4/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI33.1/100
CFI activity proxy1818.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Earthquake

Mean event index: 32/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. AtoAindex 16 → 722d ago
    Activity score changed from 16 to 7Current dominant event: M 5.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 26); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.8 → 8.8population component 24.0 → 0.6forecast component 37.5 → 22.5

    Activity score changed from 16 to 7. Current dominant event: M 5.3 Earthquake (CalamityScore 26); cause of change not attributed. severity component 14.8 → 8.8. population component 24.0 → 0.6. forecast component 37.5 → 22.5. Context: EVENT: M 5.3 Earthquake — GU Detected: 2026-09-20T03:43:31.520Z CalamityScore: 26/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 6,187 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Location: GU region. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 11 → 1622d ago
    Activity score changed from 11 to 16Current dominant event: Special Marine Warning (CalamityScore 37); cause of change not attributedseverity component 7.4 → 14.8population component 12.0 → 24.0
  3. AtoBindex 18 → 22Green → Orange98d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 22)Operational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 1.14 million . (CalamityScore 44)
  4. AtoBindex 18 → 23Green → Orange98d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 23)Operational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 4.874 million . (CalamityScore 56)
  5. AtoBindex 18 → 23Green → Orange98d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 23)Operational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 4.874 million . (CalamityScore 56)
  6. AtoBindex 18 → 23Green → Orange98d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 23)Operational status changed from green to orangeRed notification for tropical cyclone BAVI-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 4.874 million . (CalamityScore 56)
Forecast for GuamActive events in Guam