Rating
Iran risk rating
Activity gradeAindex 15.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated1m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-20 00:18:57 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-20 02:18:57 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity15.0/100
Scenario weight0.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI4.3/100
CFI activity proxy57.0/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 38/100 · Eligible records: 2
Rating history
- DtoAindex 61 → 15Yellow → Green1m agoCountry rating changed from D to A (score 61 → 15)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.4 → 15.0population component 73.9 → 4.3
Country rating changed from D to A (score 61 → 15). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributed. severity component 94.4 → 15.0. population component 73.9 → 4.3. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — IR Detected: 2026-10-19T21:25:00.000Z CalamityScore: 39/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 42,765 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: IR. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- CtoDindex 56 → 6133m agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 56 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 82.6 → 94.4population component 70.6 → 73.9
- CtoCindex 51 → 5612h agoActivity score changed from 51 to 56Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 71.2 → 82.6population component 69.6 → 70.6
- CtoCindex 45 → 5122h agoActivity score changed from 45 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 58.6 → 71.2population component 63.9 → 69.6
- BtoCindex 22 → 45Green → Yellow23h agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 22 → 45)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 58.6population component 10.3 → 63.9
- CtoBindex 60 → 22Yellow → Green1d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 60 → 22)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 91.8 → 28.8population component 73.9 → 10.3
- CtoCindex 43 → 601d agoActivity score changed from 43 to 60Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 68.0 → 91.8population component 35.5 → 73.9
- BtoCindex 26 → 431d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 26 → 43)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 38.2 → 68.0population component 12.4 → 35.5
- AtoBindex 17 → 26Green → Yellow1d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 17 → 26)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 17.4 → 38.2population component 6.8 → 12.4
- CtoAindex 57 → 17Yellow → Green2d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 57 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.0 → 17.4population component 85.2 → 6.8
- DtoCindex 61 → 572d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 61 → 57)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 85.6 → 78.0population component 89.4 → 85.2
- CtoDindex 49 → 612d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 49 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 76.0 → 85.6population component 51.4 → 89.4
- BtoCindex 28 → 492d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 28 → 49)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.6 → 76.0population component 11.5 → 51.4
- CtoBindex 53 → 283d agoCountry rating changed from C to B (score 53 → 28)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.2 → 43.6population component 75.6 → 11.5
- BtoCindex 35 → 533d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 35 → 53)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.2 → 72.2population component 35.7 → 75.6
- AtoBindex 13 → 35Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 13 → 35)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 48.2population component 4.5 → 35.7
- BtoAindex 35 → 13Yellow → Green3d agoCountry rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 13)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 48.2 → 9.6population component 35.7 → 4.5
- BtoBindex 29 → 353d agoActivity score changed from 29 to 35Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.6 → 48.2population component 28.5 → 35.7
- AtoBindex 20 → 29Green → Yellow3d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 29)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.6 → 37.6population component 7.6 → 28.5
- CtoAindex 59 → 20Yellow → Green4d agoCountry rating changed from C to A (score 59 → 20)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 87.2 → 24.6population component 76.7 → 7.6