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Rating

Poland risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 8.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated1h ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-12 11:11:24 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 13:11:24 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity66.4/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI66.1/100
CFI activity proxy2928.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Weather

Mean event index: 32/100 · Eligible records: 1

Rating history

  1. BtoAindex 28 → 8Orange → Green1h ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 8)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Western coastal zone, Poland (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.8 → 6.4population component 83.1 → 6.1

    Country rating changed from B to A (score 28 → 8). Operational status changed from orange to green. Current dominant event: Moderate weather warning — Western coastal zone, Poland (CalamityScore 32); cause of change not attributed. severity component 18.8 → 6.4. population component 83.1 → 6.1. Context: EVENT: Moderate weather warning — Western coastal zone, Poland — PL Detected: 2026-10-12T07:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 32/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 61,097 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: PL. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. CtoBindex 51 → 288d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 28)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 63.0 → 18.8population component 100.0 → 83.1forecast component 36.8 → 28.5
  3. BtoCindex 34 → 518d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 51)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 155) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.4 → 63.0population component 81.2 → 100.0forecast component 45.0 → 36.8
  4. CtoBindex 51 → 348d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 34)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 64.0 → 28.4population component 100.0 → 81.2forecast component 36.8 → 45.0
  5. BtoCindex 34 → 518d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 34 → 51)Current dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 151) (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.4 → 64.0population component 81.2 → 100.0forecast component 45.0 → 36.8
  6. BtoBindex 39 → 348d ago
    Activity score changed from 39 to 34Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.2 → 28.4population component 83.3 → 81.2forecast component 33.8 → 45.0
  7. BtoBindex 34 → 398d ago
    Activity score changed from 34 to 39Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.4 → 42.2population component 80.9 → 83.3forecast component 45.0 → 33.8
  8. AtoBindex 12 → 34Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 12 → 34)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 13.2 → 28.4population component 4.4 → 80.9forecast component 39.0 → 45.0
  9. BtoAindex 33 → 12Orange → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 33 → 12)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.4 → 13.2population component 76.0 → 4.4forecast component 45.0 → 39.0
  10. AtoBindex 18 → 33Yellow → Orange9d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 18 → 33)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.6 → 27.4population component 8.7 → 76.0forecast component 30.0 → 45.0
  11. BtoAindex 35 → 18Orange → Yellow9d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 35 → 18)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Unhealthy Air Quality (AQI 151) (CalamityScore 41); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.8 → 28.6population component 83.7 → 8.7
  12. CtoBindex 43 → 359d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 43 → 35)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 51.2 → 34.8population component 88.2 → 83.7forecast component 34.5 → 30.0
  13. BtoCindex 33 → 439d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 33 → 43)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 26.6 → 51.2population component 81.5 → 88.2forecast component 43.5 → 34.5
  14. BtoBindex 27 → 339d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 33Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.0 → 26.6population component 72.7 → 81.5forecast component 42.0 → 43.5
  15. AtoBindex 11 → 27Yellow → Orange10d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 11 → 27)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.8 → 16.0population component 0.0 → 72.7
  16. AtoAindex 7 → 11Green → Yellow10d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 18); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.6 → 10.8forecast component 39.0 → 42.0
  17. BtoAindex 26 → 7Orange → Green10d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 7)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 9); cause of change not attributedseverity component 16.0 → 3.6population component 65.0 → 0.0forecast component 42.0 → 39.0
  18. BtoBindex 32 → 2610d ago
    Activity score changed from 32 to 26Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 32.4 → 16.0population component 68.9 → 65.0forecast component 32.3 → 42.0
  19. BtoBindex 25 → 3210d ago
    Activity score changed from 25 to 32Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 32.4population component 64.8 → 68.9forecast component 40.5 → 32.3
  20. BtoBindex 36 → 2511d ago
    Activity score changed from 36 to 25Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 44); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.6 → 14.2population component 68.3 → 64.8forecast component 54.0 → 40.5
Forecast for PolandActive events in Poland