Calamity
Live Map

Rating

Russia risk rating

Activity gradeDindex 67.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated22m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-10 05:40:04 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-10 07:40:04 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity100100.0/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI100100.0/100
CFI activity proxy4949.0/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Weather

Mean event index: 29/100 · Eligible records: 94

Flood

Mean event index: 9/100 · Eligible records: 2

Fire

Mean event index: 48/100 · Eligible records: 5

Rating history

  1. AtoDindex 19 → 68Green → Orange3d ago
    Country rating changed from A to D (score 19 → 68)Operational status changed from green to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.4 → 100.0population component 6.1 → 100.0forecast component 55.5 → 54.8

    Country rating changed from A to D (score 19 → 68). Operational status changed from green to orange. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributed. severity component 24.4 → 100.0. population component 6.1 → 100.0. forecast component 55.5 → 54.8. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — RU Detected: 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z CalamityScore: 59/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 59,807 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: RU. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. AtoAindex 14 → 193d ago
    Activity score changed from 14 to 19Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedseverity component 10.6 → 24.4population component 5.6 → 6.1
  3. AtoAindex 4 → 144d ago
    Activity score changed from 4 to 14Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributedseverity component 3.4 → 10.6population component 0.0 → 5.6forecast component 18.0 → 55.5
  4. BtoAindex 26 → 4Orange → Green6d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 26 → 4)Operational status changed from orange to greenCurrent dominant event: M 5.1 Earthquake (CalamityScore 17); cause of change not attributedseverity component 43.6 → 3.4population component 16.6 → 0.0forecast component 36.8 → 18.0
  5. BtoBindex 22 → 26Yellow → Orange6d ago
    Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 40.0 → 43.6population component 2.3 → 16.6
  6. CtoBindex 51 → 22Orange → Yellow6d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 51 → 22)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 99.8 → 40.0population component 29.7 → 2.3
  7. CtoCindex 44 → 516d ago
    Activity score changed from 44 to 51Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 81.8 → 99.8
  8. BtoCindex 38 → 446d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 38 → 44)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.8 → 81.8population component 27.3 → 29.7
  9. CtoBindex 41 → 386d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 41 → 38)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 72.4 → 66.8forecast component 42.0 → 36.8
  10. AtoCindex 20 → 41Yellow → Orange6d ago
    Country rating changed from A to C (score 20 → 41)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.0 → 72.4population component 0.0 → 27.3
  11. CtoAindex 42 → 20Orange → Yellow7d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 42 → 20)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 75.0 → 34.0population component 27.4 → 0.0
  12. BtoCindex 39 → 427d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 42)Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 67.8 → 75.0population component 27.3 → 27.4
  13. BtoBindex 31 → 397d ago
    Activity score changed from 31 to 39Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 39); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.8 → 67.8population component 0.0 → 27.3forecast component 42.8 → 42.0
  14. CtoBindex 52 → 31Red → Orange7d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 52 → 31)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Moderate Wildfire (CalamityScore 27); cause of change not attributedseverity component 89.0 → 61.8population component 48.0 → 0.0forecast component 43.5 → 42.8
  15. CtoCindex 46 → 527d ago
    Activity score changed from 46 to 52Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.4 → 89.0forecast component 35.5 → 43.5
  16. CtoCindex 41 → 467d ago
    Activity score changed from 41 to 46Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 65.8 → 78.4
  17. BtoCindex 32 → 41Orange → Red8d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 32 → 41)Operational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 56.2 → 65.8population component 19.9 → 48.0
  18. BtoBindex 27 → 328d ago
    Activity score changed from 27 to 32Current dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.8 → 56.2population component 16.6 → 19.9forecast component 37.5 → 35.5
  19. DtoBindex 62 → 27Red → Orange8d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 27)Operational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Large Wildfire (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 98.2 → 45.8population component 83.4 → 16.6
  20. CtoDindex 60 → 628d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 62)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 97.8 → 98.2population component 83.3 → 83.4forecast component 31.0 → 37.5
Forecast for RussiaActive events in Russia