Rating
United States risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-12 06:05:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-12 08:05:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 27/100 · Eligible records: 83
Mean event index: 32/100 · Eligible records: 75
Mean event index: 27/100 · Eligible records: 1
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 5
Rating history
- DtoEindex 67 → 916h agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 67 → 91)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed51 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 45.9 → 40.0
Country rating changed from D to E (score 67 → 91). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed. 51 new cascade alert(s). cascade component 0.0 → 100.0. forecast component 45.9 → 40.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — US Detected: 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z CalamityScore: 64/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 121,990 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: US. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoDindex 66 → 67Red → Orange1d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedforecast component 40.5 → 45.9
- DtoDindex 67 → 66Orange → Red4d agoOperational status changed from orange to redCurrent dominant event: Hurricane Warning (CalamityScore 67); cause of change not attributedforecast component 44.4 → 40.5
- DtoDindex 67 → 67Red → Orange8d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedforecast component 45.0 → 44.4
- CtoDindex 53 → 6723d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 53 → 67)Current dominant event: Calamity estimate: Major flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70); cause of change not attributedseverity component 69.4 → 100.0forecast component 37.5 → 45.0
- DtoCindex 67 → 5323d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 67 → 53)Current dominant event: Calamity estimate: Major flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 69.4forecast component 45.0 → 37.5
- EtoDindex 93 → 6726d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 93 → 67)Current dominant event: Calamity estimate: Major flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 0.0forecast component 50.1 → 45.0
- DtoEindex 67 → 9326d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 67 → 93)Current dominant event: Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 71); cause of change not attributed22 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 100.0forecast component 44.6 → 50.1
- DtoDindex 68 → 69Orange → Red29d agoOperational status changed from orange to redMajor Flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70)
- DtoDindex 69 → 68Red → Orange29d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeCDC Statement on Increases in Recent Animal Rabies Activity and Associated Human Exposures (CalamityScore 64)
- EtoDindex 85 → 6937d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 85 → 69)Major Flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70)
- DtoEindex 69 → 8537d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 69 → 85)Major Flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 70)1 new cascade alert(s)
- EtoDindex 89 → 6941d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 89 → 69)Major Flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 68)
- BtoDindex 28 → 69Green → Red42d agoCountry rating changed from B to D (score 28 → 69)Operational status changed from green to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 54)
- DtoDindex 68 → 69Orange → Red42d agoOperational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 54)
- DtoDindex 68 → 68Orange → Red42d agoOperational status changed from orange to redMajor Wildfire (CalamityScore 54)
- DtoEindex 69 → 9443d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 69 → 94)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 68)4 new cascade alert(s)
- DtoEindex 70 → 9543d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 70 → 95)Major Wildfire (CalamityScore 71)13 new cascade alert(s)
- DtoDindex 70 → 70Red → Orange43d agoOperational status changed from red to orangeSevere Wind — TX (CalamityScore 52)
- DtoEindex 70 → 9544d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 70 → 95)Major Flooding — Lewisville Lk nr Lewisville, TX, VA (CalamityScore 68)8 new cascade alert(s)